Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
