Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
